NGX Daily Market Summary – Tuesday, November 25, 2025

The NGX All Share Index inched up by 0.10% today, closing at 143,614.61. Despite the uptick, market turnover slowed sharply by -45.54% to ₦15.33B, and trading volumes also dipped versus the prior session (458.61M vs 685.35M). Market breadth favored bulls, with 31 advancers versus 21 decliners (breadth ratio 1.48x), indicating a healthy spread in rising stocks. The YTD return for the NGX sits at a robust 39.33%—well ahead of inflation and most regional peers. Top gainer NCR (NIGERIA) PLC. soared nearly +10% on outsized momentum, while IKEJA HOTEL PLC suffered nearly a -10% loss. Sector rotation, institutional drifts, and technical crossovers paint a nuanced picture, underpinned by both opportunity and caution.

Key Market Trends & Breadth

• Market Breadth: 31 advancers, 21 decliners – bullish skew, signaling underlying support even on lower volumes.
• Turnover Decline: Sharp fall in traded value (-45.54% vs previous day) suggests institutional investors may be on the sidelines, potentially pausing after a strong YTD rally.
• Volume Patterns: Volumes up for 58 companies, down for 85 – breadth positive, but momentum mixed beneath the surface.
• High Volume Alerts: - FIRSTHOLDCO saw a staggering +422.0% spike in volume.
  - NEM surged +1587.2% over its 90-day average.
  - STANBIC IBTC volume up +501.9%.

Top 5 Daily Gainers and Losers

Year-To-Date (YTD) Top Gainers and Losers

Bullish & Bearish Momentum (15DMA Crossovers)

Highlighted Insight:
NCR (NIGERIA) PLC. is not only the top daily gainer but also the #1 YTD gainer (+721.8% YTD), with an exceptionally overbought RSI of 99.07—a textbook momentum surge but prudent traders should watch for exhaustion.
CAVERTON, appearing in today’s top losers and as a YTD gainer, signals volatility and a sharp sentiment shift. The RSI is just below 50, neither overbought nor oversold, but a double-digit price slide and bearish momentum raise caution flags.

Contrarian Signals

• NCR: RSI of 99.1 (extreme overbought) but up +721.8% YTD and daily MACD strongly bullish—momentum chasing could be risky here; tight stops advised.
• UNIONDICON: RSI 39.7 (neutral/borderline oversold), annual performance -12.5% YTD with another -10% today, but no technical bounce yet—potential value trap unless reversal signs appear.
• CAVERTON: Near-neutral RSI after steep drop suggests possible short-term relief, but series of negative technicals could prolong weakness.
• SUNUASSUR: Negative price action but RSI not yet oversold; still more room for downside.

Sector Heatmaps (Performance color-coded)

Dividend-Beta Matrix

• Defensive Opportunity: PRESTIGE combines a high dividend yield with low beta and bullish crossover—potential safe haven with upside.
• ROYAL EXCHANGE: Juicy yield, mid-range beta, technical strength.
• LASACO: Defensive on yield but faced with bearish 15DMA signal, making for a "wait and see” defensive pick.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Commanding institutional trade value share (20.17% of all institutional trade value), signifying smart money interest despite flat short-term performance.
• UBA, ACCESSCORP, GTCO: Remain hot on institutional radar, generating the majority of order flows—a trend to watch for breakout opportunities or accumulation phases.
• STANBIC: Volume surge may precede a headline move given institutional attention.

Year-to-Date (YTD) Top Movers Tables

Analysis & Insights

• Turnover Drop: The significant step-down in turnover (value) despite improving ASI hints at a cautious market, perhaps awaiting fresh catalysts or digesting recent outperformance. Watch for reversals if liquidity remains thin.
• Volume Breakouts:
  • FIRSTHOLDCO and NEM both saw volume spikes 4-16x their average—traditionally a precursor to continued momentum but also ripe for profit-taking volatility.
  • DAARCOMM (bullish 15DMA) reinforces momentum in the Media space.
• Bullish/Bearish Crossovers:
  • PRESTIGE (insurance) and GTCO (banking) signal sector-wide bullishness especially with robust price performance and crossovers.
  • CAVERTON and LASACO appear in both the Bearish table and as top losers, suggesting downward pressure has both technical and fundamental backing.
• YTD Outperformers & RSI:
  • NCR is exceptionally overbought and momentum-led. History suggests caution at these RSI levels.
  • SIAML ETF40 struggles YTD but technically in overbought territory; potential rebalancing candidate.
• Stocks with Both High Yield & Technical Momentum: ROYAL EXCHANGE and PRESTIGE: Great for risk-averse, yield-seeking investors who still want upside.

Retail vs. Institutional Activity & Patterns

• Trade Counts: Retail accounted for 66.98% of deals—but only 7.84% of value, showing institutions dominate volume and value.
• Institutions: Focused on banking (GTCO, Zenith, UBA, ACCESSCORP)—core blue chips—mirrored in bullish momentum stocks like GTCO and FIRSTHOLDCO.
• Retail: Trades are more spread, but also cluster around MTNN, ACCESSCORP, UBA, ZENITHBANK and GTCO—the same institutional names, hinting at consensus-driven flows which can exaggerate short-term trends.
• Patterns: Stocks with both high institutional and unusual volume activity (FIRSTHOLDCO, GTCO) tend to set the tone for the market’s near-term direction.

Trader Suggestions & Potential Opportunities

• Momentum Chasers: Keep tight stops on NCR, EUNISELL, and IKEJA HOTEL—momentum is strong but at overbought extremes.
• Value Seekers: Watch UNIONDICON and CAVERTON for signs of technical reversal; volume stability needed first.
• Yield + Safety: PRESTIGE and ROYALEX combine yield and technical signals for low-beta portfolios.
• Risk: Beware of thin-liquidity rallies in low float names, volume spikes could precede reversals rather than continuations.
• Sector Rotation: Insurance and select banks are currently favored by technicals and flows.
• Divergences: Stocks like LASACO (yield, but bearish), deserve caution—don’t jump for yield alone.

Hidden/Noteworthy Insights

• Institutional clustering in core large banks is not just about size—it likely signals ongoing confidence in Nigerian financial sector resilience long-term.
• Stocks with unusual volume tend to presage sharp price moves, but need confirmation; FIRSTHOLDCO and NEM both warrant close monitoring tomorrow.
• Bullish momentum stocks with high RSI (>70): NCR (99.1), EUNISELL (78.5)—strong for traders but late for investors.
• Watch for sector laggards in high-yield names catching up if market rotation continues.
• Rising breadth and strong YTD suggest a secular bull, but drop in turnover signals caution for near term until fresh conviction emerges.